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Second
Year Option, Professor: Judith Shapiro Brief syllabus: This course takes up key advanced topics in economic statistics, indispensable for applied, empirical, and econometric work. Many of the topics also address unresolved conceptual issues suitable for further theoretical inquiry. The framework is international and the applied emphasis is on Russian economic statistics, set in the context of general methodological problems for all transition countries. Subject topics include: how the fiscal deficit is actually measured, and resultant controversies; methodologies for estimating Purchasing Power Parities; recent disputes on alternative price indices; developments in labour market statistics and other topics outlined in the timetable below. Procedures: The final examination will receive 70% of the weight in marking, a project 30 %. The project report must be completed by Friday, 15 December; There are separate instructions on it. There will be two sessions of the course each week, and other meetings will be arranged. Week by week topic outline, and key readings for each. Week 1: Introduction, considerations on methodology and history. What are the problems unique to the transition to a market-based economy, and how are they being resolved? The key orientation for the course is Zvi Griliches, “Economic Data Issues” in Handbook of Econometrics, Volume III, edited by Zvi Griliches and Michael D. Intriligator , pp 1466-1514. Oskar Morgenstern, On the Accuracy of Economic Observations, 2nd edition, Princeton University Press, 1963, part I, is recommended, though for less intense reading. This classic had a somewhat different perspective from Griliches, as the latter noted. United Nations Statistics Division, Use of the System of National Accounts in Economies in Transition. Studies in Methods, Series F. No. 66, Chapter VI, “Reorientation of data sources”, Other suggested reading is listed at the end of this topic outline. Readings, by their nature, emphasize the conceptual issues. Therefore use of the statistical materials recommended, data and “metadata”, much on the web, is no less important. Week 2 Fiscal Statistics: how to measure the fiscal deficit. Disputed and difficult questions, case studies for transition economies. Debt. “Maastricht criteria”. There will be two sessions on this. A. Ouanes and S. Thakur, Macroeconomic Accounting and Analysis in Transition Economies, IMF Institute 1997, chapter 3. Mario Blejer and Adrienne Cheasty, 1993, “Measuring the Fiscal Deficit: Overview of the Issues”, in Blejer and Cheasy (ed), How to Measure the Fiscal Deficit: Analytical and Methodological Issues. Washington DC. IMF. A variant of this is also in the Journal of Economic Literature. UN/ECE Economic Survey of Europe, 2000 no. 1, on fiscal statistics in transition, and related materials. Further suggested reading available is to be found at the end of the topic outline. Week 3: Consumer Price Indices in theory and practice. Classical questions, newer developments. Particular transition problems. The “Boskin” debate and its implications. and Purchasing Power Parity Reading: R. Pollak, The Theory of the Cost-of-Living Index, Oxford University Press, 1989., selections. The Boskin report, Toward a More accurate Measure of the Cost of Living, a 1996 report to the US Congress, available at: http://www.ssa.gov/history/reports/boskinrpt.html
(See also Gordon reading in Week 7.) Jack E. Triplett Brookings Institution, at www.nber.org/sloan/Triplett.html. “Research in Price, Quality, and Quantity Measurement: What Agenda for the Next Twenty Years?” B. Granville and J. Shapiro, Chatham House Discission Paper 53, “Russian Inflation: A Statistical Pandora’s Box” explains the development of the Goskomstat CPI . OECD on PPPs, available at http://www.oecd.org/std/nahome.htm United Nations, Handbook of the International Comparison Programme, available at http://www.un.org/Depts/unsd/sna/icp/ipc0_htm.htm Week 4: Labour market statistics: introduction to national income and output statistics. Informal economy issues. Joint OECD-Eurostat-Goskomstat Workshop on “Measurement of the Non-Observed Economy”. October 2000. Draft handbook (Russian and English) available at http://www.oecd.org/std/dnm/Meetings/RfnoeOct2000.htm Angus Maddison, Monitoring the World Economy, 1820-1992, OECD, reissued 1998., comprehensive statistical appendix. O. Morgenstern, selections. A. Ouanes and S. Thakur, Macroeconomic Accounting and Analysis in Transition Economies, IMF Institute 1997, chapter 2 United Nations Statistics Division, Use of the System of National Accounts in Economies in Transition. Studies in Methods, Series F. No. 66, Chapters I and II. Week 5: Measurement of the money supply, major financial indicators, followed by a survey of methods and problems in balance of payments figures. Ab. Ouanes and S. Thakur, Macroeconomic Accounting and Analysis in Transition Economies, IMF Institute 1997, Chapter 5, “Monetary Accounts and Analysis” and Chapter 4, “Balance of Payments Accounts and Analysis” United Nations Statistics Division, Use of the System of National Accounts in Economies in Transition. Studies in Methods, Series F. No. 66, Chapter V. Week 6: Measures of social welfare. Professor Shorrocks will give a guest lecture, The second session will concentrate on new attempts to produce synthetic iindicators, notably the Human Development Index and its constituent parts. UNDP, Human Development (new journal), especially Anand and Sen. UNDP, Human Development Report, 1999, especially appendix. Week 7: Summary week: Methodological summary of cross-cutting issues. An overview of key issues for other major types of data not covered in detail in this module. What differences between the economist and the official statistician? New directions and developments in economic statistics: where are we going? Robert J. Gordon, “The Boskin Commission Report and its Aftermath” NBER Working Paper No. W7759, June 2000. Michael Boskin, Some Thoughts on Improving Economic Statistics, Hoover Institutions website. Joint OECD-Eurostat-Goskomstat Workshop on “Measurement of the Non-Observed Economy”. October 2000. Draft handbook (Russian and English) available at http://www.oecd.org/std/dnm/Meetings/RfnoeOct2000.htm
Further suggestions for introduction and methodology, week 1: Interpreting the Economy: An Essential Guide to Economic Statistics, Simon Briscow, Penguin, 2000, Has a knowledgeable background in chapters 1-3. Examples are largely British, but methodological points are international. The author is now the statistics editor of the Financial Times, A. Ouanes and S. Thakur, Macroeconomic Accounting and Analysis in Transition Economies, IMF Institute 1997, chapter 2, “Analysis of the Real Sector”. Much of this chapter will not be new for you. *Websites: New developments in availability of data and “metadata” (free of user charge) are a key factor making this course possible. If you have not been doing so, you should start exploring early. The best start from is from the data dissemination standards sections of www.imf.org, which is also a good gate to Ministries of Finance. www.unece.org statistics division will take you to the national statistical offices. www.oecd.org has an increasing content which is free of charge, as does the World Bank. An early start is recommended on the Penn World Tables (interactive mode recommended). Key Russian national websites, including MinFin’s and the Economic Expert Group, should be examined carefully if you are not familiar with them . Regular reading of Goskomstat publications A. V. Sidenko et al, Mezhdunarodnaya Statistika, “Delo I Servis” Moscow, 1999. Has detail on the history and formal characteristics of main series. This is an official statistician’s approach for the most part. Compare and contrast with Griliches and Morganstern, Further suggestions on fiscal statistics, week 2: R. Hagemann, IMF Office in Europe, “The Structural Budget Balance - The IMF's Methodology “ IMF Working Paper WP/99/95 (www.imf.org) William Easterly, “When is Fiscal Adjustment Illusory? (Economic Policy 26m also at www.worldbank.org). On the particular issue of privatization revenues Steven Barnett, IMF Fiscal Affairs Department, “Evidence on the Fiscal and Macroeconomic Impact of Privatization “, IMF Working Paper WP/00/13 (www.imf.org). George
A. Mackenzie, “The Macroeconomic Impact of Privatization”, IMF Fiscal
Affairs Department Series: Papers on Policy Analysis and Assessments
PPAA/97/9 IMF, M. Blejer and Chu, editors, Measurement of Fiscal Impact: Methodological Issues, 1987. W. Buiter , “Excessive deficits: sense and nonsense in the Treaty of Maastricht", with Giancarlo Corsetti and N, Roubini, Economic Policy, 1993 (1) www.imf.org, A Manual on Government Finance Statistics Synopsis of the GFS Manual This is the draft in progress of a new manual which would bring the IMF statistics division definitions on fiscal statistics into line with that of their Fiscal Affairs Department
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