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ECONOMIC
STATISTICS
4th
module, 2002/2003
Professor:
Judith Shapiro
This
course takes up selected key topics in economic statistics, indispensable
for applied, empirical, and econometric work. Many of the topics
also address unresolved conceptual issues suitable for further
theoretical inquiry. The framework is international and the applied
emphasis is on Russian economic statistics, set in the context
of general methodological problems for all transition countries.
Problem sets will include finding and using web data, and evaluating
it.
Procedures:
The final examination will receive 65% of the weight in
marking, assignments 25%, participation in seminars 10%.
Week
1: Introduction, considerations on methodology and history.
Why
is it popular to talk about “lies, damn lies and statistics?”
Is this accurate? What was Griliches vies?
How
have economic statistics developed in the last half century? Why
are there still so many problems? What is the economist’s usual
approach to data problems? Where do we get data from, and how
do we check it, validate it, “clean it”. Consequences for econometrics
Special
problems for statistics in transition economies: do we still have
them?
Key
reading: Zvi Griliches, “Economic Data Issues” in Handbook
of Econometrics, Volume III, edited by Zvi Griliches and Michael
D. Intriligator , pp 1466-1514.
See
also United Nations Statistics Division, Use of the System
of National Accounts in Economies in Transition. Studies in
Methods, Series F. No. 66, Chapter VI, “Reorientation of data
sources”
Week
2: Getting from nominal to real values, and the pitfalls in between.
Consumer
Price Indices in theory and practice. Classical questions,
newer developments, Russian applications.. Which is the “right”
index, and what are the economic foundations of the problems?
Particular transition problems. How are prices actually observed
and calculated in Russia? The US “Boskin” debate and its international
implications. Are there Russian parallels inmeasuring inflation?:
Anders Âslund’s recent view on this and critiques.
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The
Boskin report, Toward a More accurate Measure of the Cost of
Living, a 1996 report to the US Congress, available at: http://www.ssa.gov/history/reports/boskinrpt.html
US
Bureau of Labour Statistics, stats.bls,gov/cpigm697.htm, “Measurement
Issues in the Consumer Price Index” 1997.
Jack
E. Triplett Brookings Institution, at www.nber.org/sloan/Triplett.html.
“Research in Price, Quality, and Quantity Measurement: What Agenda
for the Next Twenty Years?”
R.
Pollak, The Theory of the Cost-of-Living Index, Oxford
University Press, 1989., selections.
The
Boskin report, Toward a More accurate Measure of the Cost of
Living, a 1996 report to the US Congress, available at: http://www.ssa.gov/history/reports/boskinrpt.html
US Bureau of Labour Statistics, stats.bls,gov/cpigm697.htm, “Measurement
Issues in the Consumer Price Index” 1997.
Jack
E. Triplett Brookings Institution, at www.nber.org/sloan/Triplett.html.
“Research in Price, Quality, and Quantity Measurement: What Agenda
for the Next Twenty Years?”
B.
Granville and J. Shapiro, Chatham House Discission Paper 53, “Russian
Inflation: A Statistical Pandora’s Box” explains the development
of the Goskomstat CPI.
Other
deflators
Week
3: Purchasing Power Parity and International Comparisons
How
is PPP calculated, and what are its problems? Should we just use
the “Big Mac” index.
Reading:
OECD
on PPPs, available at http://www.oecd.org/std/nahome.htm
United
Nations, Handbook of the International Comparison Programme,
available at
http://www.un.org/Depts/unsd/sna/icp/ipc0_htm.htm
Week
4: Shadow, “unobserved”, informal and underground: measurement
issues
Joint
OECD-Eurostat-Goskomstat Workshop on “Measurement of the Non-Observed
Economy”. October 2000. Draft handbook (Russian and English) available
at
http://www.oecd.org/std/dnm/Meetings/RfnoeOct2000.htm
Week
5: Measures of corruption, Human Development, liberalization,
transition
(See
N-drive_
.
Week
7: Summary week: Methodological summary of cross-cutting
issues. An overview of key issues for other major types of data
not covered in detail in this module. What differences between
the economist and the official statistician? New directions and
developments in economic statistics: where are we going?
Robert
J. Gordon, “The Boskin Commission Report and its Aftermath” NBER
Working Paper No. W7759, June 2000.
Michael
Boskin, Some Thoughts on Improving Economic Statistics, Hoover
Institutions website.
Joint
OECD-Eurostat-Goskomstat Workshop on “Measurement of the Non-Observed
Economy”. October 2000. Draft handbook (Russian and English) available
at
http://www.oecd.org/std/dnm/Meetings/RfnoeOct2000.htm
.
*Websites:
New
developments in availability of data and “metadata” (free of user
charge) are a key factor making this course possible. If you have
not been doing so, you should start exploring early. The best
start from is from the data dissemination standards sections of
www.imf.org, which is
also a good gate to Ministries of Finance. www.unece.org
statistics division will take you to the national statistical
offices. www.oecd.org
has an increasing content which is free of charge, as does the
World Bank. An early start is recommended on the Penn World Tables
(interactive mode recommended). Key Russian national websites,
including MinFin’s and the Economic Expert Group, should be examined
carefully if you are not familiar with them .
Regular
reading of Goskomstat publications
A.
V. Sidenko et al, Mezhdunarodnaya Statistika, “Delo I Servis”
Moscow, 1999. Has detail on the history and formal characteristics
of main series. This is an official statistician’s approach for
the most part. Compare and contrast with Griliches and Morganstern,
Further
suggestions on fiscal statistics, week 2:
R.
Hagemann, IMF Office in Europe, “The Structural Budget Balance
- The IMF's Methodology “ IMF Working Paper WP/99/95 (www.imf.org)
William
Easterly, “When is Fiscal Adjustment Illusory? (Economic Policy
26m also at www.worldbank.org).
On
the particular issue of privatization revenues
Steven
Barnett, IMF Fiscal Affairs Department, “Evidence on
the Fiscal and Macroeconomic Impact of Privatization “, IMF Working
Paper WP/00/13 (www.imf.org).
George
A. Mackenzie, “The Macroeconomic Impact of Privatization”, IMF
Fiscal Affairs Department Series: Papers on Policy Analysis
and Assessments PPAA/97/9
(www.imf.org)
IMF,
M. Blejer and Chu, editors, Measurement of Fiscal Impact: Methodological
Issues, 1987.
W.
Buiter , “Excessive deficits: sense and nonsense in the Treaty
of Maastricht", with Giancarlo Corsetti and N, Roubini, Economic
Policy, 1993 (1)
www.imf.org,
A Manual on Government Finance Statistics
Synopsis
of the GFS Manual This is the draft in progress of
a new manual which would bring the IMF statistics division definitions
on fiscal statistics into line with that of their Fiscal Affairs
Department
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